Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:18, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ONT 19:18 → PHX 20:47AA 1666	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → MIA 07:19 +1AA 3224	9h 01m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	10h 07m	99%	70%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 09m Denver	DEN 09:29 → MIA 15:24UA 1418	7h 24m	96%	62%
American Details →	ONT 12:43 → DFW 17:59AA 2956	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → MIA 01:23 +1AA 9791	9h 40m	99%	57%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194	1h 47m Phoenix	PHX 09:16 → MIA 16:49AA 1968	7h 38m	93%	57%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:41 → MIA 16:42AA 2461	8h 08m	97%	53%
American Details →	ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:52 → MIA 22:02AA 2050	8h 31m	94%	48%
American Details →	ONT 07:00 → DFW 12:09AA 2893	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167	8h 24m	96%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ONT 14:28 → DFW 19:46AA 2635	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:42 → MIA 00:37 +1AA 2090	7h 09m	70%	38%
American Details →	ONT 10:31 → DFW 15:43AA 1820	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308	7h 04m	69%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON