tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2226 at 06:57, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 06:57 ORD 12:58 12% 4% 0.9% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:49 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958 9h 09m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:18 → PHX 20:47AA 1666 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 23:42 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 2059 7h 48m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 10h 05m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 39m 96% 64%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 6h 50m 83% 61%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 18:56 → SEA 21:33AS 592 2h 08m Seattle SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285 8h 45m 89% 60%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194 1h 03m Phoenix PHX 08:32 → ORD 14:13AA 2474 6h 02m 89% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575 1h 01m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 7h 49m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON