Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 544 at 07:25, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 544 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 07:25	PDX 09:49	7%	1%	0.9%	94%
AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ONT 17:32	PDX 19:49	7%	2%	1.3%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	98%	84%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	3h 07m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	8h 09m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575	3h 38m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	7h 12m	100%	81%
United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	2h 41m San Francisco	SFO 10:06 → PDX 11:58UA 2624	5h 58m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	3h 32m Seattle	SEA 12:16 → PDX 13:15AS 488	7h 13m	99%	75%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194	3h 24m Phoenix	PHX 10:53 → PDX 13:54AA 2684	7h 43m	95%	74%
Alaska Details →	ONT 18:56 → SEA 21:33AS 592	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	5h 26m	89%	71%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → PDX 17:06DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	5h 07m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON