Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3879 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3879 ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1666 ONT 19:18 → PHX 20:47 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3879 Southwest	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:35	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 528 Southwest	ONT 09:43	PHX 11:12	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1194 American Flight history →	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:29	12%	4%	0.9%	92%
WN 3293 Southwest	ONT 12:55	PHX 14:18	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	ONT 13:02	PHX 14:29	24%	7%	0.8%	79%
WN 1341 Southwest	ONT 17:21	PHX 18:44	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3466 Southwest	ONT 21:15	PHX 22:38	29%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1666 American Flight history →	ONT 19:18	PHX 20:47	33%	10%	0.9%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON