Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2363 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2363 ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1159 ONT 12:01 → SFO 13:37 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2363 United Flight history →	ONT 06:00	SFO 07:25	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
OO 5396 SkyWest	ONT 18:39	SFO 20:40	26%	14%	1.1%	no record
UA 1387 United	ONT 09:29	SFO 11:07	27%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	27%	15%	0.7%	57%
OO 5483 SkyWest	ONT 16:05	SFO 17:39	28%	13%	0.8%	no record
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 12:01	SFO 13:37	29%	19%	2.1%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON