Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3305 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3305 ONT 06:20 → SMF 07:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 855 ONT 19:15 → SMF 20:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3305 Southwest	ONT 06:20	SMF 07:53	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1184 Southwest	ONT 10:25	SMF 11:58	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1272 Southwest	ONT 12:40	SMF 14:13	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4021 Southwest	ONT 14:13	SMF 15:41	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3289 Southwest	ONT 22:00	SMF 23:27	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 855 Southwest	ONT 19:15	SMF 20:47	26%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON