Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3031 at 17:47, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3031 SkyWest	ONT 17:47	STS 19:26	20%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:29AA 1194	2h 54m Phoenix	PHX 10:23 → STS 12:51AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 40m	95%	75%
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 19:58 → STS 21:59AS 504	7h 49m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 10:58 → STS 12:58AS 1347	6h 56m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON