Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 723 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 57–62%.

Safest bet that day UA 723 ORD 08:28 → ABQ 10:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2159 ORD 19:14 → ABQ 21:22 · 62% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 723 United Flight history →	ORD 08:28	ABQ 10:33	17%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 2068 American	ORD 11:22	ABQ 13:21	34%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2144 United	ORD 20:35	ABQ 22:41	57%	20%	1.4%	no record
AA 2159 American	ORD 19:14	ABQ 21:22	62%	21%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON