Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2034 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2034 ORD 07:30 → ALB 10:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1382 ORD 18:07 → ALB 21:08 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2034 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	ALB 10:43	8%	4%	0.7%	90%
OO 6233 SkyWest	ORD 09:33	ALB 12:35	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2792 United Flight history →	ORD 11:57	ALB 14:57	23%	10%	1.0%	66%
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:49	ALB 17:52	29%	10%	4.9%	71%
UA 1634 United	ORD 14:41	ALB 17:45	34%	15%	3.3%	no record
AA 3420 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:00	ALB 00:03	38%	10%	3.0%	76%worse than usual
UA 1382 United	ORD 18:07	ALB 21:08	50%	22%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON