Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 461 United	ORD 16:02	ANC 19:05	45%	16%	2.2%	no record
AA 375 American Flight history →	ORD 17:03	ANC 21:09	45%	16%	2.7%	70%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 12:27 → MSP 14:10DL 1567	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	11h 33m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	ORD 18:12 → MSP 19:55DL 1306	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	9h 47m	90%	72%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:32AS 587	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333	11h 34m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 22m	90%	68%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367	10h 14m	92%	66%
Alaska Details →	ORD 09:26 → SEA 11:38AS 583	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 14:02 → ANC 16:32AS 1381	10h 06m	94%	65%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	2h 39m Seattle	SEA 21:01 → ANC 23:33AS 711	10h 50m	93%	61%
Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703	10h 43m	91%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	1h 02m Portland	PDX 17:49 → ANC 20:37AS 1455	9h 25m	69%	54%
Alaska Details →	ORD 19:16 → SEA 21:42AS 579	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703	9h 09m	55%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON