Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 49–58%.

Safest bet that day DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1442 ORD 19:40 → ATL 22:51 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	7%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	ORD 06:57	ATL 10:09	9%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:35	ATL 09:37	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 09:07	ATL 12:22	12%	6%	0.8%	82%
DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ORD 09:45	ATL 12:51	13%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 639 American	ORD 06:44	ATL 09:58	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1687 Delta	ORD 08:09	ATL 11:17	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	16%	7%	0.8%	86%
AA 851 American	ORD 08:23	ATL 11:37	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 2779 United	ORD 11:56	ATL 15:07	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:20	ATL 14:25	21%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 10:06	ATL 13:21	24%	7%	1.1%	75%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:30	ATL 16:40	26%	8%	1.1%	72%
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ATL 17:10	28%	14%	1.0%	75%
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 10:34	ATL 13:45	29%	9%	1.6%	74%
AA 616 American	ORD 12:57	ATL 16:11	31%	12%	1.3%	no record
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:39	ATL 18:52	36%	15%	2.7%	76%worse than usual
DL 1652 Delta	ORD 18:35	ATL 21:42	49%	17%	1.6%	no record
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:41	50%	21%	1.1%	58%
AA 2096 American	ORD 16:40	ATL 19:47	55%	24%	5.3%	no record
AA 3114 American	ORD 19:38	ATL 22:52	55%	26%	2.0%	no record
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 19:40	ATL 22:51	58%	23%	2.3%	62%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON