Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3475 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–54%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3475 ORD 09:50 → ATW 10:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5987 ORD 17:59 → ATW 19:04 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3475 Envoy	ORD 09:50	ATW 10:55	19%	5%	1.5%	no record
OO 409 SkyWest	ORD 10:26	ATW 11:30	30%	11%	2.5%	no record
AA 3774 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 23:01	ATW 00:15	31%	9%	5.1%	78%
OO 5609 SkyWest	ORD 12:40	ATW 13:44	35%	13%	3.3%	no record
MQ 3341 Envoy	ORD 16:54	ATW 17:59	46%	15%	10.8%	no record
OO 5552 SkyWest	ORD 21:42	ATW 22:46	50%	18%	5.2%	no record
OO 5611 SkyWest	ORD 16:42	ATW 17:46	52%	21%	9.6%	no record
UA 5987 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:59	ATW 19:04	54%	20%	6.5%	48%
UA 4495 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	ATW 23:23	12%	3%	8.1%	88%
UA 4479 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	ATW 15:09	21%	7%	0.0%	79%
UA 4460 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	ATW 11:43	22%	5%	0.0%	78%
UA 4475 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	ATW 14:05	24%	11%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON