Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1336 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 54–59%.

Safest bet that day UA 1336 ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 935 ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1336 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	AUS 09:56	7%	3%	0.8%	91%
UA 1688 United Flight history →	ORD 09:01	AUS 11:59	14%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 1121 American	ORD 08:07	AUS 10:58	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1061 United Flight history →	ORD 11:47	AUS 14:41	23%	8%	1.1%	81%
UA 1211 United	ORD 13:46	AUS 16:41	29%	15%	1.1%	no record
AA 438 American	ORD 15:08	AUS 18:03	47%	16%	5.2%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	AUS 22:54	54%	20%	1.2%	68%worse than usual
AA 2433 American	ORD 19:10	AUS 22:02	55%	20%	2.4%	no record
AA 935 American Flight history →	ORD 21:16	AUS 23:59	59%	17%	3.1%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON