Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3963 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 3963 ORD 08:17 → AVL 11:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OO 5637 ORD 17:57 → AVL 20:49 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:17	AVL 11:15	12%	3%	1.6%	86%
OO 5413 SkyWest	ORD 07:10	AVL 09:59	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
YX 4737 Republic	ORD 15:14	AVL 18:09	34%	11%	5.1%	no record
OO 5637 SkyWest	ORD 17:57	AVL 20:49	50%	20%	6.6%	no record
UA 4434 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	AVL 16:58	29%	11%	7.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON