Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1913 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 55–59%.

Safest bet that day UA 1913 ORD 07:50 → BDL 11:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2165 ORD 19:34 → BDL 22:45 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1913 United	ORD 07:50	BDL 11:08	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1408 American Flight history →	ORD 08:45	BDL 11:57	18%	5%	0.8%	64%
UA 2195 United Flight history →	ORD 11:03	BDL 14:24	21%	6%	1.0%	81%
MQ 3890 Envoy	ORD 14:34	BDL 17:45	31%	8%	4.2%	no record
UA 1617 United	ORD 14:28	BDL 17:37	37%	14%	2.7%	no record
UA 1616 United	ORD 18:14	BDL 21:24	55%	19%	1.3%	no record
AA 2165 American Flight history →	ORD 19:34	BDL 22:45	59%	20%	2.2%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON