Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 6258 at 11:03 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–47%.

Safest bet that day OO 6258 ORD 11:03 → BHM 12:58 · 29% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5004 ORD 21:24 → BHM 23:19 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 6258 SkyWest	ORD 11:03	BHM 12:58	29%	11%	1.4%	no record
OO 5721 SkyWest	ORD 11:12	BHM 13:08	30%	12%	1.4%	no record
OO 5416 SkyWest	ORD 22:07	BHM 00:02	44%	20%	2.9%	no record
OO 5004 SkyWest	ORD 21:24	BHM 23:19	47%	19%	2.7%	no record
UA 4447 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	BHM 23:34	21%	9%	5.6%	79%
UA 4380 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:35	BHM 12:46	24%	0%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON