tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3498 at 09:39, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 09:39 BIL 11:44 13% 4% 1.5% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 1h 14m Denver DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest 5h 36m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → BIL 12:38AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 8h 38m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 2h 37m Seattle SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon 9h 08m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703 7h 23m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:00 → SEA 08:32AS 587 1h 37m Seattle SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon 8h 05m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → ORD 18:12 → MSP 19:55DL 1306 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 22:20 → BIL 23:30DL 2941 6h 18m 90% 64%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:10 → DFW 17:48AA 2429 3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy 9h 03m 84% 57%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 2h 57m Denver DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 80% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:31 → DFW 20:05AA 2499 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy 6h 42m 50% 34%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 1h 27m Denver DEN 19:40 → BIL 21:17UA 1417 6h 05m 59% 32%
UnitedDetails → ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 48m Denver DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 5h 37m 36% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON