Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2139 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 2139 ORD 08:34 → BOI 11:20 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5290 ORD 19:45 → BOI 22:56 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2139 United	ORD 08:34	BOI 11:20	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2353 American Flight history →	ORD 11:43	BOI 14:51	23%	5%	1.0%	81%
UA 5290 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	BOI 22:56	42%	14%	3.1%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON