Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 265 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 53–57%.

Safest bet that day UA 265 ORD 06:47 → BUF 09:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 564 ORD 19:59 → BUF 22:47 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 265 United	ORD 06:47	BUF 09:25	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 4751 Republic	ORD 08:45	BUF 11:31	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 580 United	ORD 14:20	BUF 16:58	34%	16%	2.7%	no record
AA 3013 American	ORD 14:38	BUF 17:18	43%	15%	4.6%	no record
UA 1335 United Flight history →	ORD 17:57	BUF 20:35	53%	24%	2.0%	66%worse than usual
AA 564 American Flight history →	ORD 19:59	BUF 22:47	57%	23%	2.2%	57%worse than usual
UA 4382 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:13	27%	12%	2.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON