Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3762 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–58%.

Safest bet that day AA 3762 ORD 06:56 → BWI 09:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 220 ORD 19:41 → BWI 22:40 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:56	BWI 09:57	8%	3%	1.1%	93%
UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 06:30	BWI 09:27	9%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:51	BWI 12:52	12%	3%	1.3%	78%
F9 4064 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:16	BWI 09:25	17%	5%	1.6%	65%
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:31	BWI 17:40	25%	10%	4.6%	no record
UA 8253 United	ORD 11:04	BWI 13:59	25%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2737 United	ORD 15:23	BWI 18:31	38%	19%	2.7%	no record
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:39	BWI 21:48	40%	17%	3.8%	79%worse than usual
UA 1557 United	ORD 17:51	BWI 20:51	54%	24%	2.3%	no record
UA 220 United	ORD 19:41	BWI 22:40	58%	24%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON