Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5620 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–46%.

Safest bet that day OO 5620 ORD 06:31 → CAE 09:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5594 ORD 18:37 → CAE 21:41 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5620 SkyWest	ORD 06:31	CAE 09:36	12%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 4275 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:11	CAE 16:14	26%	7%	3.6%	76%
OO 750 SkyWest	ORD 13:57	CAE 17:03	32%	16%	2.1%	no record
YX 4529 Republic	ORD 20:44	CAE 23:55	36%	16%	4.2%	no record
UA 5594 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:37	CAE 21:41	46%	26%	3.9%	54%
UA 4528 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:10	CAE 10:28	13%	3%	0.0%	87%
UA 4523 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	CAE 17:05	23%	10%	2.8%	77%
UA 4478 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	CAE 21:16	27%	14%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON