Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5437 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–46%.

Safest bet that day OO 5437 ORD 06:54 → CHA 09:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3650 ORD 19:38 → CHA 22:22 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5437 SkyWest	ORD 06:54	CHA 09:39	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3901 Envoy	ORD 13:56	CHA 16:48	28%	12%	3.6%	no record
MQ 3650 Envoy	ORD 19:38	CHA 22:22	46%	20%	3.8%	no record
UA 4596 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	CHA 09:44	8%	0%	2.7%	92%
UA 4543 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	CHA 13:16	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
UA 4465 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 14:30	CHA 17:23	31%	9%	4.2%	69%
UA 4507 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:50	CHA 20:49	36%	21%	6.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON