Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2112 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–57%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 ORD 06:58 → CHS 10:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 823 ORD 19:36 → CHS 22:54 · 57% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	ORD 06:58	CHS 10:13	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2154 American	ORD 09:56	CHS 13:14	23%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 2631 United	ORD 10:35	CHS 13:50	23%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 4664 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:52	CHS 18:23	36%	16%	5.0%	76%worse than usual
MQ 3868 Envoy	ORD 16:02	CHS 19:29	43%	15%	9.2%	no record
UA 2362 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	CHS 21:48	51%	22%	1.5%	63%worse than usual
AA 823 American	ORD 19:36	CHS 22:54	57%	23%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON