Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3732 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–51%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3732 ORD 09:57 → CID 11:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 254 ORD 21:44 → CID 22:53 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3732 Envoy	ORD 09:57	CID 11:08	16%	5%	1.9%	no record
G7 4175 GoJet	ORD 10:11	CID 11:04	30%	6%	2.6%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	ORD 11:48	CID 12:59	31%	11%	3.5%	no record
OO 5399 SkyWest	ORD 13:53	CID 15:11	33%	17%	3.6%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	ORD 18:57	CID 20:20	40%	18%	7.2%	no record
OO 5474 SkyWest	ORD 20:28	CID 21:49	49%	22%	9.2%	no record
OO 5544 SkyWest	ORD 16:25	CID 17:44	49%	25%	11.4%	no record
UA 254 United	ORD 21:44	CID 22:53	51%	20%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON