Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1488 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–56%.

Safest bet that day UA 1488 ORD 07:25 → CLE 09:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1156 ORD 20:02 → CLE 22:28 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1488 United Flight history →	ORD 07:25	CLE 09:54	8%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:38	CLE 09:11	15%	5%	1.0%	78%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	CLE 12:58	18%	7%	0.9%	83%
OO 5480 SkyWest	ORD 09:06	CLE 11:34	21%	9%	1.3%	no record
OO 4932 SkyWest	ORD 09:56	CLE 12:23	23%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 1878 United Flight history →	ORD 12:53	CLE 15:20	27%	12%	1.0%	70%
OO 4937 SkyWest	ORD 12:14	CLE 14:43	31%	11%	2.3%	no record
UA 1502 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CLE 16:54	32%	16%	2.5%	79%worse than usual
OO 4904 SkyWest	ORD 13:35	CLE 16:02	34%	17%	2.4%	no record
MQ 3838 Envoy	ORD 21:33	CLE 00:07	41%	10%	4.7%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	ORD 17:43	CLE 20:17	49%	16%	6.7%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CLE 23:49	49%	18%	1.1%	57%
OO 5477 SkyWest	ORD 16:25	CLE 18:53	49%	22%	9.6%	no record
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:53	CLE 20:21	52%	22%	2.0%	58%worse than usual
UA 1156 United	ORD 20:02	CLE 22:28	56%	24%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON