Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2842 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 49–55%.

Safest bet that day AA 2842 ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3188 ORD 16:53 → CLT 19:48 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2842 American Flight history →	ORD 05:07	CLT 08:10	8%	4%	1.5%	90%
YX 3426 Republic	ORD 06:48	CLT 09:53	10%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 1784 American Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:37	12%	4%	1.5%	84%
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:26	CLT 13:50	14%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 2080 American Flight history →	ORD 08:59	CLT 11:56	19%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 411 American	ORD 08:28	CLT 11:22	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 3021 American	ORD 11:45	CLT 14:41	26%	7%	1.6%	no record
YX 3518 Republic	ORD 14:16	CLT 17:38	27%	10%	3.3%	no record
AA 1409 American Flight history →	ORD 13:22	CLT 16:18	34%	11%	1.7%	63%
AA 2976 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	CLT 23:59	49%	20%	2.6%	62%worse than usual
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	CLT 21:59	52%	20%	2.6%	68%worse than usual
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	52%	22%	1.2%	43%
AA 1187 American	ORD 19:09	CLT 22:13	52%	20%	2.4%	no record
AA 3188 American	ORD 16:53	CLT 19:48	55%	20%	6.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON