Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 451 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–55%.

Safest bet that day UA 451 ORD 06:55 → CMH 09:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 5304 ORD 18:07 → CMH 20:12 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 451 United Flight history →	ORD 06:55	CMH 09:19	6%	3%	0.7%	87%
YX 3592 Republic	ORD 09:17	CMH 11:46	8%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:16	CMH 09:37	8%	2%	1.1%	87%
YX 3565 Republic	ORD 12:53	CMH 15:22	15%	6%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3815 Envoy	ORD 12:11	CMH 14:38	16%	5%	2.3%	no record
UA 2063 United	ORD 10:39	CMH 13:03	18%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:07	CMH 12:29	20%	7%	2.6%	71%
YX 3516 Republic	ORD 14:30	CMH 16:59	22%	11%	3.8%	no record
AA 3542 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:10	CMH 17:31	32%	11%	6.0%	84%worse than usual
UA 3614 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CMH 22:24	33%	13%	2.6%	73%
AA 4445 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:55	CMH 23:33	35%	12%	3.1%	72%
AA 3447 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:36	CMH 22:10	41%	13%	3.4%	66%
MQ 3917 Envoy	ORD 17:44	CMH 20:16	42%	13%	5.8%	no record
UA 1492 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	CMH 23:59	49%	17%	1.0%	67%worse than usual
UA 1278 United	ORD 17:56	CMH 20:20	52%	21%	2.0%	no record
OO 5304 SkyWest	ORD 18:07	CMH 20:12	55%	19%	5.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON