Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1082 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–49%.

Safest bet that day UA 1082 ORD 09:06 → COS 11:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 4638 ORD 19:45 → COS 21:55 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1082 United Flight history →	ORD 09:06	COS 11:09	14%	8%	0.9%	86%
OO 6189 SkyWest	ORD 11:01	COS 12:40	28%	11%	1.9%	no record
UA 4638 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	COS 21:55	49%	23%	3.3%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON