Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3394 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–43%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3394 ORD 08:31 → COU 09:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3696 ORD 19:30 → COU 21:05 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3394 Envoy	ORD 08:31	COU 09:45	18%	6%	2.5%	no record
OO 5614 SkyWest	ORD 09:02	COU 10:27	26%	13%	3.0%	no record
MQ 3398 Envoy	ORD 16:48	COU 18:21	41%	19%	10.6%	no record
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:30	COU 21:05	43%	23%	3.9%	59%
UA 4392 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	COU 10:13	22%	5%	0.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON