Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3680 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–57%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3680 ORD 06:57 → CVG 09:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1007 ORD 21:27 → CVG 23:46 · 57% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3680 Envoy	ORD 06:57	CVG 09:14	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1970 United	ORD 06:52	CVG 09:10	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3950 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:08	CVG 14:37	20%	6%	2.0%	80%
OO 5215 SkyWest	ORD 08:42	CVG 11:02	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 5266 SkyWest	ORD 10:42	CVG 13:02	29%	9%	2.4%	no record
YX 4455 Republic	ORD 22:16	CVG 00:40	33%	9%	2.6%	no record
OO 5521 SkyWest	ORD 12:55	CVG 15:15	33%	12%	3.3%	no record
YX 3593 Republic	ORD 16:53	CVG 19:29	38%	16%	8.3%	no record
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:30	CVG 18:54	39%	16%	7.8%	93%worse than usual
OO 704 SkyWest	ORD 14:29	CVG 16:49	42%	17%	4.8%	no record
AA 3690 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CVG 22:00	46%	15%	3.0%	74%worse than usual
UA 1732 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	CVG 20:32	54%	21%	1.5%	65%worse than usual
UA 1223 United	ORD 21:29	CVG 23:46	55%	18%	1.1%	no record
AA 1007 American	ORD 21:27	CVG 23:46	57%	17%	1.4%	no record
UA 4388 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:59	CVG 15:30	17%	14%	2.7%	83%
UA 4445 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:29	CVG 19:00	29%	11%	9.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON