Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4494 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–50%.

Safest bet that day YX 4494 ORD 05:59 → DCA 09:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 514 ORD 17:52 → DCA 20:58 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4494 Republic	ORD 05:59	DCA 09:08	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DCA 08:54	8%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 495 American	ORD 06:56	DCA 10:02	8%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 482 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DCA 09:59	9%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 1705 United Flight history →	ORD 08:17	DCA 11:20	11%	5%	0.8%	90%
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 08:53	DCA 11:59	12%	5%	1.1%	79%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	14%	4%	1.1%	77%
AA 315 American	ORD 09:51	DCA 12:57	15%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 1904 United	ORD 09:57	DCA 13:00	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:35	DCA 13:41	18%	8%	1.8%	61%
UA 202 United	ORD 10:53	DCA 13:53	18%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	22%	10%	1.1%	69%
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	26%	14%	1.3%	65%
AA 789 American	ORD 13:17	DCA 16:22	33%	13%	2.3%	no record
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	33%	17%	3.5%	56%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:11	37%	18%	3.8%	66%
AA 535 American	ORD 21:05	DCA 00:19	39%	14%	3.6%	no record
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:55	DCA 18:00	40%	15%	4.5%	74%worse than usual
UA 2812 United	ORD 16:20	DCA 19:28	45%	22%	5.3%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:10	DCA 20:26	46%	21%	5.3%	70%worse than usual
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:19	DCA 20:26	47%	21%	3.2%	no record
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	48%	22%	1.7%	50%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	50%	21%	1.7%	56%
AA 514 American	ORD 17:52	DCA 20:58	50%	21%	5.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON