Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2666 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–65%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1387 ORD 19:01 → DEN 20:40 · 65% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DEN 06:41	5%	3%	0.7%	98%
UA 2806 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DEN 07:42	8%	3%	0.7%	97%
UA 1217 United Flight history →	ORD 06:59	DEN 08:49	8%	4%	0.7%	92%
MQ 3964 Envoy	ORD 06:49	DEN 08:23	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1225 American	ORD 08:22	DEN 10:18	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 1483 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:24	DEN 08:05	20%	6%	1.5%	71%
UA 318 United	ORD 08:37	DEN 10:11	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2363 American Flight history →	ORD 09:45	DEN 11:23	23%	8%	0.8%	80%
UA 2857 United	ORD 10:57	DEN 12:31	26%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1277 American	ORD 11:59	DEN 13:37	33%	10%	1.1%	no record
UA 2809 United	ORD 12:48	DEN 14:23	40%	14%	0.9%	no record
UA 2803 United Flight history →	ORD 14:33	DEN 16:31	41%	19%	2.6%	76%worse than usual
UA 2324 United	ORD 13:46	DEN 15:32	42%	17%	1.1%	no record
AA 2001 American	ORD 22:38	DEN 00:33	43%	12%	1.6%	no record
UA 1974 United Flight history →	ORD 18:17	DEN 20:22	51%	21%	1.8%	58%
UA 767 United Flight history →	ORD 21:57	DEN 23:33	53%	15%	1.1%	71%worse than usual
UA 329 United Flight history →	ORD 20:14	DEN 21:59	54%	22%	1.7%	75%worse than usual
UA 1882 United	ORD 16:40	DEN 18:34	55%	25%	2.5%	no record
AA 1317 American	ORD 15:18	DEN 16:57	55%	20%	2.9%	no record
UA 2769 United Flight history →	ORD 16:12	DEN 18:13	55%	25%	4.2%	61%worse than usual
AA 1387 American Flight history →	ORD 19:01	DEN 20:40	65%	23%	1.8%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON