Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 4955 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–51%.

Safest bet that day OO 4955 ORD 07:00 → DSM 08:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2836 ORD 16:40 → DSM 18:04 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4955 SkyWest	ORD 07:00	DSM 08:21	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 466 United	ORD 08:59	DSM 10:18	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 5412 SkyWest	ORD 11:08	DSM 12:29	26%	9%	2.0%	no record
UA 1658 United	ORD 12:47	DSM 14:07	26%	12%	1.0%	no record
AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:33	DSM 00:02	33%	11%	3.9%	80%worse than usual
YX 4769 Republic	ORD 15:52	DSM 17:20	35%	14%	3.7%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	ORD 12:40	DSM 13:44	37%	12%	1.9%	no record
OO 4890 SkyWest	ORD 18:08	DSM 19:41	48%	25%	5.7%	no record
OO 4659 SkyWest	ORD 22:02	DSM 23:25	48%	18%	4.9%	no record
UA 1839 United Flight history →	ORD 21:25	DSM 22:56	50%	22%	1.0%	60%worse than usual
UA 2836 United	ORD 16:40	DSM 18:04	51%	24%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON