Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3706 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–56%.

Safest bet that day YX 3706 ORD 06:52 → DTW 09:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 768 ORD 20:09 → DTW 22:29 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3706 Republic	ORD 06:52	DTW 09:20	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 2039 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DTW 09:30	8%	4%	1.1%	87%
YX 3632 Republic	ORD 08:51	DTW 11:19	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:12	DTW 09:36	13%	4%	1.0%	93%
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:42	DTW 12:06	14%	4%	1.5%	91%
DL 2840 Delta	ORD 08:56	DTW 11:16	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:55	DTW 15:19	18%	7%	2.2%	86%
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	18%	8%	1.4%	77%
OO 3819 SkyWest	ORD 11:15	DTW 13:39	20%	8%	1.7%	no record
OO 5882 SkyWest	ORD 12:50	DTW 15:15	26%	11%	1.8%	no record
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:07	DTW 16:40	33%	14%	2.4%	78%worse than usual
MQ 3947 Envoy	ORD 17:17	DTW 19:53	41%	14%	6.1%	no record
UA 2632 United	ORD 15:58	DTW 18:20	43%	19%	2.5%	no record
AA 4012 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:57	DTW 23:21	43%	13%	3.9%	100%worse than usual
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	48%	18%	3.2%	71%worse than usual
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:17	DTW 21:52	49%	20%	1.6%	69%worse than usual
OO 4885 SkyWest	ORD 18:52	DTW 21:16	51%	20%	3.9%	no record
UA 642 United	ORD 18:07	DTW 20:29	52%	22%	1.2%	no record
UA 349 United	ORD 21:29	DTW 23:51	54%	17%	1.3%	no record
UA 768 United	ORD 20:09	DTW 22:29	56%	22%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON