tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 3634 at 10:31, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3634 Republic ORD 10:31 ECP 12:58 14% 5% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 18m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 6h 27m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 1h 44m Charlotte CLT 09:54 → ECP 10:48AA 5262 · flown by PSA 5h 41m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 35m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:30 → ATL 16:40DL 2894 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494 7h 16m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → ECP 11:37AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 6h 37m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535 2h 39m Houston IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 32m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 2h 26m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:01UA 4043 · flown by Mesa 7h 21m 92% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 13:22 → CLT 16:18AA 1409 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 17:27 → ECP 18:13AA 5297 · flown by PSA 4h 51m 69% 51%
AmericanDetails → ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 56m Charlotte CLT 22:55 → ECP 23:37AA 5633 · flown by PSA 4h 50m 43% 33%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 51m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 53m 33% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON