Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3631 at 16:02 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 53%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3631 Republic	ORD 16:02	ELP 18:43	40%	15%	5.3%	no record
AA 3948 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:35	ELP 23:43	53%	12%	1.8%	81%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 40m Denver	DEN 11:22 → ELP 13:15UA 2128	8h 15m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002	8h 50m	99%	81%
American Details →	ORD 09:00 → LAX 11:21AA 1979	3h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 14:40 → ELP 17:50AA 6453 · flown by SkyWest	9h 50m	97%	76%
United Details →	ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231	3h 44m Houston	IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 50m	99%	76%
United Details →	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448	1h 19m Houston	IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa	6h 22m	89%	75%
United Details →	ORD 15:50 → IAH 18:35UA 2062	3h 05m Houston	IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa	7h 54m	91%	73%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:49 → ELP 09:40AA 1365	5h 40m	96%	73%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → ELP 11:49AA 1658	6h 45m	96%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 15:39 → ATL 18:52DL 1477	47m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	6h 11m	53%	35%
United Details →	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	1h 07m Denver	DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333	5h 59m	49%	25%
United Details →	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	47m Houston	IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa	5h 56m	18%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON