Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 19:16, is the safest bet: 49% chance of reaching Eugene on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2427 United Flight history →	ORD 08:59	EUG 11:36	23%	5%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	8h 03m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	8h 17m	90%	78%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	8h 57m	100%	76%
United Details →	ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577	1h 56m San Francisco	SFO 19:15 → EUG 21:02UA 363	8h 32m	81%	60%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	3h 04m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	8h 48m	85%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 19:16 → SEA 21:42AS 579	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	6h 43m	55%	49%
United Details →	ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334	57m San Francisco	SFO 19:15 → EUG 21:02UA 363	7h 36m	53%	40%
United Details →	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	1h 22m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	7h 09m	57%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON