Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1027 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–72%.

Safest bet that day UA 1027 ORD 05:59 → EWR 09:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 8782 ORD 16:56 → EWR 20:02 · 72% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1027 United	ORD 05:59	EWR 09:06	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 2759 United Flight history →	ORD 04:54	EWR 08:01	11%	3%	1.3%	47%
AA 699 American	ORD 06:46	EWR 09:59	13%	4%	2.2%	no record
UA 1273 United	ORD 07:45	EWR 10:46	14%	5%	1.4%	no record
UA 2238 United	ORD 08:55	EWR 12:00	19%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 1856 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	EWR 14:17	24%	11%	1.7%	80%
AA 2416 American	ORD 10:05	EWR 13:13	26%	9%	3.0%	no record
UA 606 United Flight history →	ORD 12:11	EWR 15:39	30%	14%	1.8%	78%
AA 1936 American Flight history →	ORD 13:10	EWR 16:30	43%	18%	3.8%	65%
UA 1209 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	EWR 00:53	45%	14%	2.0%	68%worse than usual
UA 2466 United	ORD 14:11	EWR 17:32	47%	23%	3.7%	no record
UA 759 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	EWR 23:39	48%	19%	2.3%	65%worse than usual
UA 1236 United	ORD 15:23	EWR 18:40	50%	22%	3.8%	no record
AA 2549 American Flight history →	ORD 20:09	EWR 23:30	54%	23%	3.7%	45%
UA 1630 United Flight history →	ORD 17:27	EWR 20:50	55%	24%	3.6%	70%worse than usual
UA 249 United	ORD 16:20	EWR 19:42	55%	26%	3.9%	no record
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	58%	27%	6.3%	47%
UA 2790 United	ORD 17:57	EWR 21:04	61%	23%	3.8%	no record
UA 3810 United	ORD 16:20	EWR 19:06	65%	27%	5.8%	no record
B6 8782 JetBlue	ORD 16:56	EWR 20:02	72%	29%	7.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON