Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	6h 53m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	6h 38m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	7h 31m	98%	76%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 09:58 → EYW 12:20AA 1816	6h 13m	96%	75%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09AA 2984	3h 19m Miami	MIA 12:28 → EYW 13:39AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	7h 39m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247	55m Atlanta	ATL 10:32 → EYW 12:32DL 9966	4h 57m	87%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON