Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 4597 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–48%.

Safest bet that day UA 4597 ORD 08:40 → FSD 10:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest OO 4992 ORD 16:16 → FSD 18:00 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4597 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 08:40	FSD 10:23	20%	4%	1.3%	68%
OO 4991 SkyWest	ORD 09:43	FSD 11:27	25%	10%	1.3%	no record
OO 5645 SkyWest	ORD 12:41	FSD 14:24	31%	15%	2.2%	no record
UA 1842 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	FSD 23:31	42%	20%	1.5%	60%
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:37	FSD 00:22	43%	19%	4.1%	50%
OO 5359 SkyWest	ORD 16:05	FSD 17:49	47%	26%	8.3%	no record
OO 4992 SkyWest	ORD 16:16	FSD 18:00	48%	27%	8.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON