Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5784 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–56%.

Safest bet that day OO 5784 ORD 06:03 → GRR 08:06 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2472 ORD 20:09 → GRR 22:12 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5784 SkyWest	ORD 06:03	GRR 08:06	13%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 1297 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	GRR 12:50	17%	6%	1.0%	89%
AA 6365 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:09	GRR 09:12	17%	4%	1.8%	50%
YX 4780 Republic	ORD 11:55	GRR 14:04	17%	5%	1.9%	no record
OO 5568 SkyWest	ORD 09:07	GRR 11:10	21%	5%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3455 Envoy	ORD 13:41	GRR 15:52	22%	8%	4.7%	no record
UA 2751 United	ORD 12:36	GRR 14:38	29%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:47	GRR 00:57	33%	9%	7.3%	68%
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:10	GRR 19:20	38%	13%	8.4%	62%
OO 5567 SkyWest	ORD 15:29	GRR 17:36	40%	15%	6.0%	no record
UA 5250 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:03	GRR 18:06	49%	17%	9.1%	58%
OO 5656 SkyWest	ORD 17:53	GRR 19:56	52%	16%	10.5%	no record
UA 1819 United Flight history →	ORD 21:47	GRR 23:49	54%	18%	2.0%	68%worse than usual
UA 2472 United	ORD 20:09	GRR 22:12	56%	22%	2.2%	no record
UA 4598 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:40	GRR 14:55	22%	15%	0.0%	78%
UA 4592 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 05:59	GRR 08:07	23%	13%	0.0%	77%
UA 4417 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:40	GRR 18:58	29%	12%	11.1%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON