Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: G7 4539 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–44%.

Safest bet that day G7 4539 ORD 06:56 → GSO 09:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4502 ORD 18:40 → GSO 21:25 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4539 GoJet	ORD 06:56	GSO 09:52	11%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:52	GSO 12:50	11%	3%	1.6%	95%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:07	GSO 18:04	34%	10%	5.9%	92%worse than usual
G7 4565 GoJet	ORD 14:33	GSO 17:29	34%	11%	5.4%	no record
AA 3648 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:48	GSO 21:55	36%	13%	3.9%	78%worse than usual
G7 4502 GoJet	ORD 18:40	GSO 21:25	44%	15%	3.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON