Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4160 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 4160 ORD 08:17 → GSP 11:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 636 ORD 18:54 → GSP 21:41 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4160 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:17	GSP 11:22	8%	3%	1.0%	100%
MQ 4002 Envoy	ORD 09:43	GSP 12:37	11%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 5403 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	GSP 17:00	24%	11%	1.7%	77%
AA 4145 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:13	GSP 18:11	30%	13%	5.5%	66%
MQ 3668 Envoy	ORD 18:51	GSP 21:44	36%	16%	4.7%	no record
UA 636 United	ORD 18:54	GSP 21:41	52%	21%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON