Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 219 United Flight history →	ORD 09:49	HNL 13:42	17%	7%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	12h 50m	95%	81%
United Details →	ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361	3h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 13:13 → HNL 16:17UA 1224	14h 17m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:05 → DTW 09:30DL 2039	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	12h 02m	91%	76%
United Details →	ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217	3h 11m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	13h 14m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 14m	100%	76%
United Details →	ORD 12:35 → SFO 15:08UA 1097	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638	14h 08m	97%	75%
United Details →	ORD 08:04 → SFO 10:44UA 1116	3h 11m San Francisco	SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300	13h 14m	98%	74%
United Details →	ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246	1h 58m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	12h 10m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 06:01 → LAX 08:19UA 2373	46m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158	10h 52m	70%	57%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	51m Seattle	SEA 16:35 → HNL 19:53DL 419	11h 53m	58%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON