Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 40m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 37m	99%	77%
American Details →	ORD 12:37 → DFW 15:05AA 1106	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 11m	95%	63%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:39 → ATL 18:52DL 1477	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 12m	88%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	47m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 02m	68%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON