Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3812 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39%.

Safest bet that day AA 3812 ORD 08:10 → HPN 11:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3752 ORD 19:39 → HPN 22:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:10	HPN 11:29	12%	3%	1.3%	83%
AA 4200 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:41	HPN 15:59	24%	7%	2.8%	78%
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:44	HPN 17:04	25%	7%	3.6%	74%
AA 3499 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:29	HPN 21:57	39%	13%	5.9%	75%worse than usual
AA 3752 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:39	HPN 22:59	39%	13%	4.6%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON