Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 9874 at 01:21 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–40%.

Safest bet that day MQ 9874 ORD 01:21 → HSV 03:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4986 ORD 22:31 → HSV 00:17 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 9874 Envoy	ORD 01:21	HSV 03:10	13%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:38	HSV 11:23	23%	8%	1.4%	80%
AA 4986 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:31	HSV 00:17	40%	18%	3.9%	64%
UA 4570 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	HSV 12:22	25%	4%	0.0%	75%
UA 4500 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 19:52	HSV 21:53	27%	13%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON