Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2277 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2277 ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2202 ORD 18:09 → IAD 21:18 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1486 United	ORD 10:51	IAD 13:45	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1128 United	ORD 12:51	IAD 15:46	27%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:57	IAD 18:00	34%	13%	2.6%	73%
UA 1922 United	ORD 21:42	IAD 00:35	45%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 304 United	ORD 20:11	IAD 23:09	45%	17%	1.2%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:09	IAD 21:18	50%	16%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON