Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1172 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–57%.

Safest bet that day UA 1172 ORD 05:25 → IAH 08:09 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3144 ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1172 United	ORD 05:25	IAH 08:09	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1231 United Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:36	12%	5%	0.8%	91%
UA 2228 United	ORD 06:18	IAH 09:03	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	17%	7%	0.8%	80%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	ORD 06:51	IAH 09:42	18%	7%	1.0%	75%
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:39	23%	10%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:29	IAH 13:14	23%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 10:40	IAH 13:31	27%	9%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
AA 2302 American	ORD 13:22	IAH 16:14	39%	15%	1.6%	no record
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 14:56	IAH 17:48	41%	20%	4.0%	78%worse than usual
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAH 00:34	44%	15%	1.3%	76%worse than usual
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	44%	22%	2.8%	74%worse than usual
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 15:50	IAH 18:35	44%	19%	2.6%	76%worse than usual
AA 2243 American	ORD 15:30	IAH 18:19	49%	20%	3.6%	no record
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	50%	21%	1.6%	56%
UA 1921 United	ORD 17:48	IAH 20:36	52%	23%	2.1%	no record
AA 1496 American	ORD 17:10	IAH 20:03	54%	22%	4.8%	no record
UA 8178 United	ORD 18:34	IAH 21:20	55%	23%	1.4%	no record
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:07	IAH 23:51	57%	20%	2.9%	53%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON