Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 4809 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–55%.

Safest bet that day UA 4809 ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest MQ 3538 ORD 19:53 → ICT 21:56 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4809 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ICT 11:12	21%	8%	1.1%	77%
OO 4999 SkyWest	ORD 10:01	ICT 12:01	28%	10%	1.5%	no record
G7 4577 GoJet	ORD 13:06	ICT 15:13	32%	13%	3.1%	no record
G7 4553 GoJet	ORD 16:02	ICT 18:02	47%	19%	11.2%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ORD 15:24	ICT 17:24	49%	23%	6.6%	no record
UA 424 United	ORD 21:45	ICT 23:47	51%	22%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3538 Envoy	ORD 19:53	ICT 21:56	55%	19%	5.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON